Ever wonder why articles containing good news are always emphasized more and not so good news are given less emphasis?
I believe it's just how we, homosapians are created. We tend to think about things alot and if good news are more, we think that things are good. If bad things happen, we tend to think, "oh no" bad times are here. In which case, either good or bad thoughts will create self-fulfilling prophecy of the respective event to happen.
We don't wish to have bad events happening now, do we? An example is like rumors of a stock market crash, and when investors hear about it, they will want to sell their holdings to protect their capital. A sell-down is ensured and a crash will be imminent.
I never thought it will happen, crude oil nearly reaching USD100. I thought the book "The Coming Economic Collapse: How You can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel", was just that, a book. Instead it is a possibility in sight in the next decade if not a few years.
What is worrisome is that, the world is still stuck to oil and it's by-products of petro-chemicals. We are like a cat that needs milk. without this milk, we can't survive.
On top of rising crude oil, we are faced with a US housing bubble in the midst of collapse. And this collapse seems to be taking dragging into the grave, not only the homeowners, but the banks as well, forcing the FED to pump liquidity into the financial system.
So what are we going to face? Growing inflation, possible recession. Oh.. it's going to be a stagflation. The worst that can ever happen to a country. Hopefully it's only a country and not the entire world. Just imagine the economic and political nightmare should such a scenario happen.
What do you choose to solve, inflation or recession? Solving one will cause the other to worsen. Unless you have the political chips and patience of the people, the solution will not come with ease.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Friday, October 5, 2007
Tired of it all
When you reached a time in your life and realise that life is just what it is, there's nothing more interesting left...
It's just a dull color with all its negative vibes.
Sad is it not?
Just tired of it all and wish for it to end soon...
It's just a dull color with all its negative vibes.
Sad is it not?
Just tired of it all and wish for it to end soon...
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Subprime Crisis
Even before my previous entry, the credit crunch and the pumping of funds into the financial institutions by central banks were already in the midst.
Now it seems, that a variation of Possibility 6 happened.
Banks pay extreme caution in lending, and they are not even lending to their counterparts! As reported in Singapore's The Business Times on 15 September 2007, "Britain urges 'international action' after banking bailout", the Bank of England had to provide emergency funds to a major British mortgage lender called Northern Rock after other banks became wary of lending to it, squeezing the mortgage lender's financing.
As long as holders of CDOs related to the subprime crisis have no idea how material the financial impact will be, uncertainty will be formed in the market. As such, banks will take caution towards lending even if they are lending to others in their industry.
Let's all hope the subprime crisis will not be material to cause a banking meltdown.
Now it seems, that a variation of Possibility 6 happened.
Banks pay extreme caution in lending, and they are not even lending to their counterparts! As reported in Singapore's The Business Times on 15 September 2007, "Britain urges 'international action' after banking bailout", the Bank of England had to provide emergency funds to a major British mortgage lender called Northern Rock after other banks became wary of lending to it, squeezing the mortgage lender's financing.
As long as holders of CDOs related to the subprime crisis have no idea how material the financial impact will be, uncertainty will be formed in the market. As such, banks will take caution towards lending even if they are lending to others in their industry.
Let's all hope the subprime crisis will not be material to cause a banking meltdown.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Possible Spillover of Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis
1) Subprime Crisis > Banks tighten lending > Credit Crunch > Investment funds pull out from markets > Currencies fall > Net Import Nations face crisis of higher priced goods (import inflation)
2) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > CDOs worthless > Balance sheets of financial institutions get impacted (depending on impact, some may close, others face a huge profit write off) > Markets may get shocked > Investors seek liquidity > Pull of from markets > Markets fall, herd behaviour occurs > Market falls further > Investors lose confidence > Govts step in > Stability may occur slow or fast depending on the speed and actions taken by govts.
3) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > Foreclosure of homes > Supply of home sales in market outstrip demand > Property prices fall > USA home owners feel less rich > Consumption decreases > USA demand for global goods decreases > Negative impact on export-oriented countries like China, Taiwan and Singapore > Economic slowdown possible on a global scale.
4) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > Foreclosure of homes > Supply of home sales in market outstrip demand > Property prices fall > USA home owners feel less rich > Consumption decreases > FED lowers interest rate, get banks to lend out more > Banks change lending patterns from property to other forms > Consumption increases > Solve economic slowdown.
5) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > Foreclosure of homes > Supply of home sales in market outstrip demand > Property prices fall > USA home owners feel less rich > Consumption decreases > FED lowers interest rate, get banks to lend out more > Banks change lending patterns from property to other forms > Consumption increases > Subprime Crisis gets worse, impacts entire economy > Possible stagflation.
6) Subprime Crisis > Banks tighten lending > Credit Crunch > Central Banks reduce interest rates > Banks pay extreme caution in lending > Not many borrowers > Interest rates remain low > Subprime Crisis gets bigger than expected > Economic fallout > Recession on a global scale > Possible depression like 10-year long Japan.
Many more other possibilities, as the future is uncertain.
2) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > CDOs worthless > Balance sheets of financial institutions get impacted (depending on impact, some may close, others face a huge profit write off) > Markets may get shocked > Investors seek liquidity > Pull of from markets > Markets fall, herd behaviour occurs > Market falls further > Investors lose confidence > Govts step in > Stability may occur slow or fast depending on the speed and actions taken by govts.
3) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > Foreclosure of homes > Supply of home sales in market outstrip demand > Property prices fall > USA home owners feel less rich > Consumption decreases > USA demand for global goods decreases > Negative impact on export-oriented countries like China, Taiwan and Singapore > Economic slowdown possible on a global scale.
4) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > Foreclosure of homes > Supply of home sales in market outstrip demand > Property prices fall > USA home owners feel less rich > Consumption decreases > FED lowers interest rate, get banks to lend out more > Banks change lending patterns from property to other forms > Consumption increases > Solve economic slowdown.
5) Subprime Crisis > Mortgage borrowers fail to pay up > Foreclosure of homes > Supply of home sales in market outstrip demand > Property prices fall > USA home owners feel less rich > Consumption decreases > FED lowers interest rate, get banks to lend out more > Banks change lending patterns from property to other forms > Consumption increases > Subprime Crisis gets worse, impacts entire economy > Possible stagflation.
6) Subprime Crisis > Banks tighten lending > Credit Crunch > Central Banks reduce interest rates > Banks pay extreme caution in lending > Not many borrowers > Interest rates remain low > Subprime Crisis gets bigger than expected > Economic fallout > Recession on a global scale > Possible depression like 10-year long Japan.
Many more other possibilities, as the future is uncertain.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Facing Life With A Sprain Ankle
Inspiration, youth and time. That's what all of us think we have. However, it always takes an incident/accident to make us realise our own mortality.
Never before I stopped to see the world from this different angle. But it has brought before me the realisation of what I take for granted on a daily basis.
The ability for us to control our bodily fuctions is a gift. The abilities to crawl, walk, run and jump are common to those who are fortunate, and they are many fortunate people around.
When you can't walk properly, you'll find that the traffic light changes rapidly. And you start to think how the elderly are able to cross without the fear of their lives.
When you can't walk properly, you'll find that stares from people are common. And you start to think what those people's thoughts are.
When you can't walk properly, you'll find that tasks once every so simple is so difficult to do. And you start to think if you can actually complete those tasks.
Being able to control one's bodily functions, gives one's self-confidence and esteem. Losing any and you'll start to lose both.
Everyday is a challenge, even if it is just to get out from bed. Need to challenge self and increase own's self-confident and esteem is left only through own motivational thoughts.
Appreciate life, appreciate the finer things in life.
Never before I stopped to see the world from this different angle. But it has brought before me the realisation of what I take for granted on a daily basis.
The ability for us to control our bodily fuctions is a gift. The abilities to crawl, walk, run and jump are common to those who are fortunate, and they are many fortunate people around.
When you can't walk properly, you'll find that the traffic light changes rapidly. And you start to think how the elderly are able to cross without the fear of their lives.
When you can't walk properly, you'll find that stares from people are common. And you start to think what those people's thoughts are.
When you can't walk properly, you'll find that tasks once every so simple is so difficult to do. And you start to think if you can actually complete those tasks.
Being able to control one's bodily functions, gives one's self-confidence and esteem. Losing any and you'll start to lose both.
Everyday is a challenge, even if it is just to get out from bed. Need to challenge self and increase own's self-confident and esteem is left only through own motivational thoughts.
Appreciate life, appreciate the finer things in life.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Does the Past Haunt Us?
Is it possible within a short time span to do something wonderful?
Is it possible that we would value history more than the present and hope through the past obtain a better future?
Is it possible for us to improve our lives without wasting our time?
Interesting is it not?
Just by pondering on these few questions, will our entire existence of how we live haunt us?
A crucial event has happened, and the selected few of us are wondering are we able to do it?
Let's just struggle through our lives and hope for the best outcome even if it may not be Pareto efficient.
Is it possible that we would value history more than the present and hope through the past obtain a better future?
Is it possible for us to improve our lives without wasting our time?
Interesting is it not?
Just by pondering on these few questions, will our entire existence of how we live haunt us?
A crucial event has happened, and the selected few of us are wondering are we able to do it?
Let's just struggle through our lives and hope for the best outcome even if it may not be Pareto efficient.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Deal or No Deal
It's a wonderful game show ever to be created on national television.
Why would it be so?
The game show enables viewers to understand human behaviour and internalise their own personality better. The show applies 3 most fundamental concepts of life. Statistics, risk taking and greed.
As the participant chooses his case to keep, statistics plays its part. He would have a 1 out of 26 chances in choosing the top amount. After that, he would need to eliminate the other cases in an excitment driven show, at times heart-wrenching to the participant. I'll not mentioned the process here as there're many websites that explain it clearly.
What the participant hopes for is to have many of the huge money cases left after the rounds of elimination to ensure that the banker offers the participant a good price for the case he kept.
If the banker offers a low price, the participant enacts the concept of risk taking and opens a few more cases to get that offer to a higher level. Just so often, the risk taking concept changes to greed as the participant gets drawn too deep in thoughts of winning the biggest money amount. The participant takes too much risk for too little return on the belief that he is being lucky which eventually causes him to obtain a lower offer from the banker.
Of course there are rational participants who play the game to the best of their statistical minds and walk away with the most money obtainable, even though that money is not the highest case amount but just the offer from the banker.
So what can be used in all of this in life? Plenty!
First, no matter which type of industry you are working in, statistics plays its part. And for those self-employed, do not think statistics have no part to play. Statistics is being acted upon daily, even with the insurance you bought.
Second, risk taking is part of life. We take risk everyday, from crossing the road to taking the train. But what is most applicable on risk taking is this. Parents take the risk of putting their children into reputable schools with the hope they would turn out good. Pupils take the risk of studying subjects with the hope they would obtain the best grades. Teenagers taking the risk of knowing more friends with the hope they would like best friends but may mixed up with the wrong company.
Well, I believe you get to see the picture. No matter what is done in life, there are risks. It is a matter of how much risk you are taking and whether does the return of the risk (measured in terms of utils and not money) is beneficial to you. Some risks are worth taking, and others not.
Lastly, you must always know why you are there. There, in the sense of where you are, the situation you are in, the event you placed yourself. Know what you objective is. Do not follow greed and forget the reason you are there. Greed has many forms, and many of us know its first, which is money. But greed can also be in terms of utils. With many utils gained, many do forget their first objective, their reason of being there and continue to gain those utils as their greed sets in.
As such, know who you are, what your objective is, and do your statistics to obtain the best risk taking possible. Do not let greed rear its ugly head over you.
Why would it be so?
The game show enables viewers to understand human behaviour and internalise their own personality better. The show applies 3 most fundamental concepts of life. Statistics, risk taking and greed.
As the participant chooses his case to keep, statistics plays its part. He would have a 1 out of 26 chances in choosing the top amount. After that, he would need to eliminate the other cases in an excitment driven show, at times heart-wrenching to the participant. I'll not mentioned the process here as there're many websites that explain it clearly.
What the participant hopes for is to have many of the huge money cases left after the rounds of elimination to ensure that the banker offers the participant a good price for the case he kept.
If the banker offers a low price, the participant enacts the concept of risk taking and opens a few more cases to get that offer to a higher level. Just so often, the risk taking concept changes to greed as the participant gets drawn too deep in thoughts of winning the biggest money amount. The participant takes too much risk for too little return on the belief that he is being lucky which eventually causes him to obtain a lower offer from the banker.
Of course there are rational participants who play the game to the best of their statistical minds and walk away with the most money obtainable, even though that money is not the highest case amount but just the offer from the banker.
So what can be used in all of this in life? Plenty!
First, no matter which type of industry you are working in, statistics plays its part. And for those self-employed, do not think statistics have no part to play. Statistics is being acted upon daily, even with the insurance you bought.
Second, risk taking is part of life. We take risk everyday, from crossing the road to taking the train. But what is most applicable on risk taking is this. Parents take the risk of putting their children into reputable schools with the hope they would turn out good. Pupils take the risk of studying subjects with the hope they would obtain the best grades. Teenagers taking the risk of knowing more friends with the hope they would like best friends but may mixed up with the wrong company.
Well, I believe you get to see the picture. No matter what is done in life, there are risks. It is a matter of how much risk you are taking and whether does the return of the risk (measured in terms of utils and not money) is beneficial to you. Some risks are worth taking, and others not.
Lastly, you must always know why you are there. There, in the sense of where you are, the situation you are in, the event you placed yourself. Know what you objective is. Do not follow greed and forget the reason you are there. Greed has many forms, and many of us know its first, which is money. But greed can also be in terms of utils. With many utils gained, many do forget their first objective, their reason of being there and continue to gain those utils as their greed sets in.
As such, know who you are, what your objective is, and do your statistics to obtain the best risk taking possible. Do not let greed rear its ugly head over you.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Marginal Utility of jobs
How life changes when an individual starts working. Before starting work, a person would think about getting the dream job, or whatever possible jobs that he/she would not mind working.
It's only when upon getting the job, the person would look back feel it is not really the job that matters. It is the risk and return of the job that is important to him at the end of the day.
So what can be the return of a job? Well, it must be the salary, medical and health benefits and other monetary incentives that the person would get in the job. It must also be the future benefits of the job, like yearly bonuses and salary increments.
And what about the risks? Surely a person working inside an office does not face the risk of having an accident on the road more than a lorry driver. But an office worker does face the risk of stress, hypertension, stroke, heart disease and many more if the office worker does not take care of his health. In this day of age, with all the fuss on flexible working arrangements surely working cannot be bad. There is little truth in this statement for the over-worked lot which is mainly the middle class society.
Then there is the risk that the office worker will lose his job in 5-10 years time due to the mobility of jobs due to labour wage competition from the entire globe, mainly India and China. So does the risk and return commensurate with each other?
Of course they should be, that's what HR is for. Ensuring that workers obtain the best benefits that the company can offer. That's what companies would view. Workers would have a differing opinion on this subject matter.
Workers would tend to measure if their own personal marginal utility is met. If the return and risks of the jobs enable the workers to reach their highest marginal utility, workers would be satisfied with the job.
The problem arises when workers have different marginal utility. What may be one's person food is another person's posion. Thus it is difficult to gauge whether a job is suitable for a person without that person taking the leap and trying the job out.
So end of day, you do need to remember that opinions differ as to whether a job is good or not. Only you will know what you like to do, and what jobs are suitable for you to meet your own personal marginal utility.
It's only when upon getting the job, the person would look back feel it is not really the job that matters. It is the risk and return of the job that is important to him at the end of the day.
So what can be the return of a job? Well, it must be the salary, medical and health benefits and other monetary incentives that the person would get in the job. It must also be the future benefits of the job, like yearly bonuses and salary increments.
And what about the risks? Surely a person working inside an office does not face the risk of having an accident on the road more than a lorry driver. But an office worker does face the risk of stress, hypertension, stroke, heart disease and many more if the office worker does not take care of his health. In this day of age, with all the fuss on flexible working arrangements surely working cannot be bad. There is little truth in this statement for the over-worked lot which is mainly the middle class society.
Then there is the risk that the office worker will lose his job in 5-10 years time due to the mobility of jobs due to labour wage competition from the entire globe, mainly India and China. So does the risk and return commensurate with each other?
Of course they should be, that's what HR is for. Ensuring that workers obtain the best benefits that the company can offer. That's what companies would view. Workers would have a differing opinion on this subject matter.
Workers would tend to measure if their own personal marginal utility is met. If the return and risks of the jobs enable the workers to reach their highest marginal utility, workers would be satisfied with the job.
The problem arises when workers have different marginal utility. What may be one's person food is another person's posion. Thus it is difficult to gauge whether a job is suitable for a person without that person taking the leap and trying the job out.
So end of day, you do need to remember that opinions differ as to whether a job is good or not. Only you will know what you like to do, and what jobs are suitable for you to meet your own personal marginal utility.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
How to love somebody?
Many of us must have thought to love somebody, we must show maximum care and concern; to be physically and mentally present to our special one; to possess the person's heart, mind and soul which would enable us to love totally.
i personally feel it is negatively correct. Doing so only fuels our personal ego. Letting us feel great that we are showing our special one love. In truth, we are being selfish as we satisfy our own emotions.
Showing too much care can make the other feel uncomfortable; physically and mentally present can be nuisance; possession of heart, mind and soul is just too possessive and an obsession of us to our special one...
What we should strive for is to give our special one happiness.
Happiness can be achieve through moderate care; not being there always but there is at least some form of communication for thoughts and feedback.
And if you truly love a person so dear, sometimes you just need to let the person go... to let the person enjoy the happiness that he/she just rightly deserves.
i personally feel it is negatively correct. Doing so only fuels our personal ego. Letting us feel great that we are showing our special one love. In truth, we are being selfish as we satisfy our own emotions.
Showing too much care can make the other feel uncomfortable; physically and mentally present can be nuisance; possession of heart, mind and soul is just too possessive and an obsession of us to our special one...
What we should strive for is to give our special one happiness.
Happiness can be achieve through moderate care; not being there always but there is at least some form of communication for thoughts and feedback.
And if you truly love a person so dear, sometimes you just need to let the person go... to let the person enjoy the happiness that he/she just rightly deserves.
My first posting
Hello everybody,
Here's my first blog... well, i'm not be talking much about my personal life on this webspace... but will be mentioning more about life in general so that i'm able to share out with others more and more about life...
Here's my first blog... well, i'm not be talking much about my personal life on this webspace... but will be mentioning more about life in general so that i'm able to share out with others more and more about life...
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